Wednesday, November 11, 2009

A "Peak" Into the Future - Not So Pretty

As if we needed anything more to worry about, we read today in The Guardian that the U.S. has pressured the International Energy Agency to lie about the level of worldwide oil reserves. Ostensibly, this was done because revealing the true level of reserves would cause a financial panic since, well, we don't have much of an alternative to turn to.

"The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves."


This is important because once the economy improves, and it becomes apparent that global oil production cannot meet increased demand, the radically increased price will wreak havoc with the world's economies. We're already weakened from the Great Recession. A dramatic run up in the price of oil will cause many jobs to disappear overnight just as consumer goods, food and energy costs rise.

And we're what, still a full year from the first wave of plug-ins to come to market?

I'll be curious to see how the media plays this one. Do they ignore it, or do they begin to inform people that we're about to go up a stinky creek, and um, you better take a paddle with you.

"A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added."

If that comment doesn't send a chill down your spine, you should read it again.

This report should make the front page of every newspaper, but I fear it will be buried.

All I can say is we better push for viable plug-in cars to get to market sooner than later. Everyone reading this blog should pay close attention to who's making what kind of EV and be ready to act when they do get to market. Once the peak is evident, it'll be too late to get one at MSRP.

Paul
*****

20 comments:

  1. I heard that China bought six million new cars last year. Consumption in developing countries is bound to bring this home to roost much faster than anyone will admit.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yea, well, nero always fiddles while Rome burns. My boat is wind and solar powered - so who needs oil? Well, maybe just a little for my reading lamp. The first world has been enslaved by internal combustion for 100 years. Now, it's the third world's turn. Pass me the lighter fluid and a violin please,
    The TV says I need a bigger SUV, and then, my life will be perfect.

    ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Paul:

    Do you have a site or link to your information?

    I would like to forward it to my extensive email list but I always like to provide sources.

    It doesn't surprise me that America would keep this under wraps-for another reason; if the word was out, there would be a bigger push for electric cars-which we know the oil companies don't want. They have stood in the way of this for at least a decade. They're going to ride their gravy train all the way down. And since we live in a corporatocracy,
    our president, congress and news corps-inlcuding, but not limited to Newscorp-do big oil's bidding. Tragic. Maybe Knightridder will report on this. I suggest you contact them-and provide sourcing. They were almost the only media who accurately reported on the real facts behind the run up to the Iraq war.
    Thanks for this news, and for all of your hard work and dedication.
    Regards,
    Ellen

    ReplyDelete
  4. The faster we run out of oil the better!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Bob, Knight-Ridder won't be reporting on this. They ceased to exist 3 years ago following purchase by McClatchy.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Good points in your post.

    Eventually, I want to do a story for SolarChargedDriving.Com that looks at the usage of "long-term" in media coverage of peak oil. So far, I've never actually seen "long-term" officially defined. And I'm betting an extensive analysis will find that it rarely, if ever gets defined.

    Does long-term oil supply mean: 25 years? 50 years? 100?

    At 100 years I'm guessing there's almost no oil left at all. And absolutely no one -- or at least no one who gets their voice into the mainstream media -- is talking about a 'long-term' in which there is no oil left at all.

    In other words, "long-term" would appear to implicitly mean at most the next 30 or so years?

    Maybe it's just me, but I don't see 30 years as long-term, especially when we're talking about a resource without which our current oil-driven global economy collapses.

    Quick question. You wrote -->

    "Everyone reading this blog should pay close attention to who's making what kind of EV and be ready to act when they do get to market. Once the peak is evident, it'll be too late to get one at MSRP."

    I'm not sure what I need to do then to get an EV at MSRP. Do I need to get on a waiting list? It would be great if you could clarify this.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Ellen,

    Thanks for forwarding the blog.

    The links are embedded in the first sentence. See "The Guardian" and "International Energy Agency".

    ReplyDelete
  8. Christof,

    There are no official waiting lists for the Volt or Leaf at this time, but I'll be test driving the Leaf tomorrow and will ask if they plan on starting a list any time soon. It's funny that the auto makers are nervous about whether they'll sell enough of these cars and I'm nervous that they can't make them fast enough.

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  9. @Ellen - just use the main hyperlink from Blogger to forward to others.

    @Christof - Let me know your thoughts on the test drive of the LEAF. I drove a MINI-E all last week and feel in love with the technology.

    @Paul - Keep up the great work and insight. Thank goodness for whistleblowers.

    Cheers,
    Jen (GoSustaino.com)

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi Paul.

    I agree with Brett...

    ReplyDelete
  11. For those shorter trips, electric bikes take a lot less solar power to charge than electric cars. Also, e-bikes are far more energy efficient than e-cars, are much cheaper to own and run, and they get you out in the sun (vitamin D). There are also electric cargo bikes that can carry fairly large loads. Check them out on the internet.

    ReplyDelete
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