Wednesday, November 11, 2009

A "Peak" Into the Future - Not So Pretty

As if we needed anything more to worry about, we read today in The Guardian that the U.S. has pressured the International Energy Agency to lie about the level of worldwide oil reserves. Ostensibly, this was done because revealing the true level of reserves would cause a financial panic since, well, we don't have much of an alternative to turn to.

"The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves."

This is important because once the economy improves, and it becomes apparent that global oil production cannot meet increased demand, the radically increased price will wreak havoc with the world's economies. We're already weakened from the Great Recession. A dramatic run up in the price of oil will cause many jobs to disappear overnight just as consumer goods, food and energy costs rise.

And we're what, still a full year from the first wave of plug-ins to come to market?

I'll be curious to see how the media plays this one. Do they ignore it, or do they begin to inform people that we're about to go up a stinky creek, and um, you better take a paddle with you.

"A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added."

If that comment doesn't send a chill down your spine, you should read it again.

This report should make the front page of every newspaper, but I fear it will be buried.

All I can say is we better push for viable plug-in cars to get to market sooner than later. Everyone reading this blog should pay close attention to who's making what kind of EV and be ready to act when they do get to market. Once the peak is evident, it'll be too late to get one at MSRP.



  1. I heard that China bought six million new cars last year. Consumption in developing countries is bound to bring this home to roost much faster than anyone will admit.

  2. Yea, well, nero always fiddles while Rome burns. My boat is wind and solar powered - so who needs oil? Well, maybe just a little for my reading lamp. The first world has been enslaved by internal combustion for 100 years. Now, it's the third world's turn. Pass me the lighter fluid and a violin please,
    The TV says I need a bigger SUV, and then, my life will be perfect.


  3. Hi Paul:

    Do you have a site or link to your information?

    I would like to forward it to my extensive email list but I always like to provide sources.

    It doesn't surprise me that America would keep this under wraps-for another reason; if the word was out, there would be a bigger push for electric cars-which we know the oil companies don't want. They have stood in the way of this for at least a decade. They're going to ride their gravy train all the way down. And since we live in a corporatocracy,
    our president, congress and news corps-inlcuding, but not limited to Newscorp-do big oil's bidding. Tragic. Maybe Knightridder will report on this. I suggest you contact them-and provide sourcing. They were almost the only media who accurately reported on the real facts behind the run up to the Iraq war.
    Thanks for this news, and for all of your hard work and dedication.

  4. The faster we run out of oil the better!

  5. Bob, Knight-Ridder won't be reporting on this. They ceased to exist 3 years ago following purchase by McClatchy.

  6. Good points in your post.

    Eventually, I want to do a story for SolarChargedDriving.Com that looks at the usage of "long-term" in media coverage of peak oil. So far, I've never actually seen "long-term" officially defined. And I'm betting an extensive analysis will find that it rarely, if ever gets defined.

    Does long-term oil supply mean: 25 years? 50 years? 100?

    At 100 years I'm guessing there's almost no oil left at all. And absolutely no one -- or at least no one who gets their voice into the mainstream media -- is talking about a 'long-term' in which there is no oil left at all.

    In other words, "long-term" would appear to implicitly mean at most the next 30 or so years?

    Maybe it's just me, but I don't see 30 years as long-term, especially when we're talking about a resource without which our current oil-driven global economy collapses.

    Quick question. You wrote -->

    "Everyone reading this blog should pay close attention to who's making what kind of EV and be ready to act when they do get to market. Once the peak is evident, it'll be too late to get one at MSRP."

    I'm not sure what I need to do then to get an EV at MSRP. Do I need to get on a waiting list? It would be great if you could clarify this.

  7. Ellen,

    Thanks for forwarding the blog.

    The links are embedded in the first sentence. See "The Guardian" and "International Energy Agency".

  8. Christof,

    There are no official waiting lists for the Volt or Leaf at this time, but I'll be test driving the Leaf tomorrow and will ask if they plan on starting a list any time soon. It's funny that the auto makers are nervous about whether they'll sell enough of these cars and I'm nervous that they can't make them fast enough.

  9. @Ellen - just use the main hyperlink from Blogger to forward to others.

    @Christof - Let me know your thoughts on the test drive of the LEAF. I drove a MINI-E all last week and feel in love with the technology.

    @Paul - Keep up the great work and insight. Thank goodness for whistleblowers.

    Jen (

  10. Hi Paul.

    I agree with Brett...

  11. For those shorter trips, electric bikes take a lot less solar power to charge than electric cars. Also, e-bikes are far more energy efficient than e-cars, are much cheaper to own and run, and they get you out in the sun (vitamin D). There are also electric cargo bikes that can carry fairly large loads. Check them out on the internet.

  12. Regardless of man's age, hermes belt mens watches present both classically refined and vintage inspired. Despite searching opulent, michael kors stretch and play with their color hues from black pave crystals adorning round bezel to white ceramic bezel embellish with numeric engraving.

  13. To get unlimited hermes belt access to and our NYTimes apps, you’michael

    kors outlet
    ll need a subscription.

  14. What will you choose when faced with the dynamic duo between black hermes belt and white? Elegant black and white watches come in new innovative ceramic, silicone, acrylic or plastic casing and bracelet. Gold and crystal accents lands the final touches on these watches. The Michael Kors Baguette and Glitz watches michael kors outlet have crystal embellishments surrounding the bezel and dial. The Michael Kors ceramic watches have a smooth glossy surface which is highly scratch resistant. The ceramic watches are very popular for its beauty and durableness. Choose between alluring white and sleek black Michael Kors ladies watches.

  15. Of course
    Coach Factory Outletthese may
    possibly not
    be your
    Coach Factory Outletordinary retailer
    Coach Factory Outlet purchased ones
    Coach Factory Outletbut they
    Coach Factory Outletare sturdy
    Coach Factory Outletand can be
    Coach Factory Outletterrific for heavy
    Factory Outlet
    duty get
    Coach Factory Outletthe job
    Coach Factory Outletdone. Army
    Coach Factory Outletcoats are also offered as perfectly as rain dress in.

  16. A lately
    Coach Factory Store Handbags Replica
    Coach Outlet that has
    Coach Factory generated interest
    Coach Factory of fashion
    Coach Factory Outlet enthusiast is
    Coach Outlet Online Samba. There's been an extended waiting list of style conscious people today, who just simply wish to possess this
    Coach Factory Outlet bag whatever it takes. These
    Coach bags Outlet Handbags Replica
    Coach Outlet Store Online are mostly liked by celebrities
    Coach Outlet Store and
    Coach Outlet Online socialites, simply because of its
    Coach Outlet craftsmanship and
    Coach Outlet Online luscious
    Coach Outlet material. A
    Coach Bags Handbags Replica is a smaller accessory that reflects 1 private style and character.

  17. Interested in shopping for a designer breitling watches from a ray ban sunglasses locations?
    These typical merchants of the corporation stock goods which are surplus,
    and all those products which could suffer small defects because of to shipment or at the time of production.
    ray ban glasses that breitling watches typically obtain goods in bulk,
    they get these products at comparatively lower price ranges and also offer prospects enticing reductions on designer goods like purses and rolex watches for sale.

  18. The footwear are staying viewed all over the position and have ladies jogging out to the stores to buy them. They are very cozy and sense light on your ft. The pumps are easy to walk in and are Michael Kors Wallet fantastic for dancing.
    There are so quite a few magnificent Michael Kors Outlet handbags to fall in adore with. The Signature Michael Kors Online Outlet handbags are normally great to very own when you will need a bag to go with every little thing. Also, the Hobo Michael Kors Purses bags are terrific for any situation. The Shopper handbag is fantastic for all those who like to carry much larger Michael Kors Outlet Handbags bags. The more compact bags are what you need to have for heading out on the town and for people who do not treatment for the bulkier Michael Kors bags like the large Shoulder Michael Kors Handbags Outlet handbags.

  19. If you look closely will find the words hidden in the shoes of "23", two large patterns in the upper side support, three the soles lateral bottom

  20. --! @senquanSome LV Purses offer for sale completely different circumstance and / or live concert louis vuitton handbags outlet. Louis Cardinals Flights, louis vuitton outlet online, Cleveland Indians Flights, louis vuitton purses, Kansas Destination Queens Flights, authentic louis vuitton handbags, Usually are Angels Flights and so. accompanied by a specific louis vuitton outlet online. --! @senquan.

  21. In That Respect Chanel Wallet is a wide Chanel Sunglasses range ready for Chanel bags choice including the Chanel Outlet Store black leather satin Chanel Outlet bag.